This time next year Michiganders will have a new governor and U.S. senator. It’s not hyperbole, then, to suggest that we’re heading into one of those pivotal cycles that can determine the state’s direction for decades to come. How will it all shake out? For our annual feature, we assembled a sextet of political soothsayers — Adrain Hemond, Jer Staes, Donna Givens-Davidson, Charlie LeDuff, Jason Roe, and Scott Greenlee — to tell us what their crystal balls tell them. (And next year, we’ll see whether any of it comes true.)
Can Mike Duggan win the governor’s race? Sure, but…
The now former Detroit mayor has no day job, piles of campaign cash, and the field effectively to himself until the two parties vote for their nominees in August. Plus, he’s running as an independent at a time when the public has soured on the nasty tone of partisan politics and gridlock in Washington, D.C., and Lansing. He’s also, according to GOP strategist Jason Roe, “running the best campaign of all the candidates in the race.”
“He’s as popular in the suburbs as he is with Detroit residents, and he has the perception of having been a very successful mayor,” Roe says.
Roe and Daily Detroit podcast host Jer Staes seem most optimistic about Duggan’s chances. “He’s well-timed for it,” Staes says. “If it’s the 2024 or 2028 cycle, maybe not, but this cycle is the Goldilocks year for someone like him.” And GOP campaign strategist Scott Greenlee also believes he’s “one of the few people strong enough due to name ID and fundraising ability to win a major race as an independent.”
Still, he’s running against history and some logistical issues. Many Michiganders vote straight ticket by habit, and persuading them not to will be exceedingly difficult, says Donna Givens-Davidson, executive director of the Eastside Community Network. “He’s trying to do it the hard way,” agrees Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond.
Podcaster Charlie LeDuff is especially skeptical: “Who’s going to be drawn to a big-city boss from Detroit? You’re gonna pull loads of people from Escanaba with billboards? Mathematically, I don’t see it. But yeah, there’s always a chance.”
Who will replace Gary Peters in the U.S. Senate? Probably Mike Rogers.
Republicans are poised to renominate ex-Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 despite President Donald Trump’s win in the state by 80,000 votes. The leading Democratic candidates — state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, and epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed — will spend the next eight months vying for the nomination. LeDuff says that helps Rogers: “Everything’s lining up his way. But more interesting is what kind of Democrat we get. A progressive? A centrist? It’s all very delicious.”
Greenlee agrees: “He came as close last time to winning a U.S. Senate seat as any Republican had since Spence Abraham in 1996, and he’s ready to roll. Unlike last time, the party is united behind him, too.” Roe doubts any of the Democrats will have the same statewide name ID or appeal.
Tellingly, none of the liberals on the panel are especially confident about their side’s chances, and they note that the outcome is probably most likely to hinge on current unknowns about the economy and mood at the midpoint of Trump’s second term. Rogers “won’t have the president’s coattails, but the Democrats have a contested primary,” Hemond says. “In gambling terms, this is about as close to a pick ’em as you get.”
Will trade relations with Canada impact Michigan’s economy? Absolutely.
Our panelists agree on that — but disagree on how. Hemond called the tariff standoff “extraordinarily bad for Michigan” because “the supply chain is bound up with the Detroit River. It will be extremely economically painful for Michigan.” Givens-Davidson and Staes both believe the feud will have long-lasting effects as Canada builds up its trade relations with China. “It is very hard for Canada or any country to take us as a serious negotiation partner right now,” Staes says. “I really hope that something happens, but the longer this trade dispute goes on, the more it hurts Michigan Republicans in the state, in the Senate, and in the Legislature.”
The tariff supporters among the panel have a different take. Greenlee thinks a new U.S.-Canada trade deal is coming that will be more favorable to American manufacturers because “more jobs will naturally be created.” LeDuff says that whatever pain the state endures was necessary to force a fairer trade relationship.
Roe agrees things will calm down: “There is a lot of interest from the business community and from the governments of both nations to put this hostile environment away.”
What blast of Michigan’s political past will make big news in 2026? Various
Greenlee says 2022 GOP gubernatorial loser Tudor Dixon is primed for a comeback, perhaps as a lieutenant governor nominee. “She’s been vetted, she’s been through the battles, and her name ID is still strong,” he says. LeDuff chooses former Republican Gov. Rick Snyder, predicting he’ll “endorse somebody that is just so, so wackadoodle.” Staes believes former GOP Congressman Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump, will emerge as “the glue of a very disparate” post-Trump Republican coalition.
And while all of those choices are speculative, Hemond’s is ironclad: Lee Chatfield. The former Republican state House speaker’s corruption trial is slated for September 2026. “Particularly given some of the salacious nature of the allegations against him for which he is not on trial, I expect that that trial is going to get a lot of media coverage,” Hemond says.
Which Detroit pro sports teams will go to the playoffs? All of them. Who will go the furthest? The Lions
Partisans can find common ground: Our teams are great! And even though we asked these questions in late October before the Lions’ loss to the Vikings and second loss to the Packers, when we checked in with the panelists in early December, most stood their ground. “I said what I said,” says Givens-Davidson. Staes is not as confident, “As a lifelong fan…you never give up the ship — but it’s 70/30 they do not make the playoffs.” The group also thinks the Tigers have World Series potential if, as Roe urges, “they get some bats.”
Will Gov. Gretchen Whitmer praise or criticize Trump in her final State of the State? Neither
The governor spent 2025 trying to work with the White House, sometimes with humiliating results. Our panelists mostly agree that she’ll keep that up with an eye toward getting things done in her final year in office. “I don’t believe that she sees any wisdom in focusing on him,” Givens-Davidson agrees.
Greenlee believes she may want to praise him but won’t because that would hurt her should she run for president in 2028. “It would probably be a Democratic political misstep that would be held against her in the future,” he says. Roe doubts she has any kind words but says that she’s “made a calculation not to spend her last years in mindless fights with Trump.” She will eventually “position herself as an anti-Trump crusader within the party, but she’ll put that off until the last minute.”
This story originally appeared in the January 2026 issue of Hour Detroit magazine. To read more, pick up a copy of Hour Detroit at a local retail outlet. Click here to get our digital edition.
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